UP ELECTION : For Whom Are the Uttar Pradesh By-Elections a Bigger Challenge, Yogi Adityanath or Akhilesh Yadav?

The narrative that will dominate in the Uttar Pradesh by-elections has become a key point of discussion. This week’s episode of Khabaron Ke Khiladi focused on this very topic with senior journalists Ramkripal Singh, Vinod Agnihotri, Sameer Chougankar, Awadhesh Kumar, and Anurag Verma participating in the debate.

By-elections in several states are being held alongside the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections. Uttar Pradesh will witness the most action, with by-elections in nine assembly seats scheduled for November 20. Both BJP and Samajwadi Party (SP) are actively campaigning, with BJP pushing its “Batenge to Katenge” slogan while SP seeks to attract voters with its “PDA” narrative.

Sameer Chougankar’s Perspective

Sameer Chougankar highlighted that Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Backward, Dalit, and Minority) slogan performed well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, compelling Yogi Adityanath and BJP to counter this success. Yogi Adityanath aims to prove that the Lok Sabha results were a one-time coincidence, while Akhilesh strives to sustain his success. Whether the BJP’s “Batenge to Katenge” or Akhilesh’s PDA resonates will only be clear after November 23.

Awadhesh Kumar’s Analysis

Awadhesh Kumar pointed out the significant Muslim vote share in constituencies like Mirapur (40%), Sisamau (45%), and Kundarki (65%). In Kundarki, only the BJP candidate is non-Muslim among 12 contestants. If BJP manages to win five seats, it will indicate a return of its core voter base. Otherwise, the results will reflect Akhilesh’s growing influence.

Anurag Verma’s Take

Anurag Verma argued that by-elections typically do not mirror the outcomes of larger elections. While the issues raised in these elections may not seem impactful, the campaigns remain grounded in political narratives rather than developmental agendas. Both SP and BJP are focusing on consolidating their respective voter bases through strategic rhetoric.

Purnima Tripathi’s Insights

Purnima Tripathi noted that Congress has completely surrendered to the Samajwadi Party in this by-election, accepting SP’s senior role in Uttar Pradesh. This election serves as a litmus test for SP’s PDA narrative. If it succeeds, SP can leverage it in future elections. However, the stakes are high for Yogi Adityanath. If “Batenge to Katenge” does not resonate, BJP may need to rethink its strategy for 2027.

Ramkripal Singh’s Observations

Ramkripal Singh emphasized that by-elections and general elections cannot be directly compared. For instance, BJP lost three significant by-elections (Phulpur, Gorakhpur, and Kairana) before the 2019 general elections but later achieved an even bigger victory. Similarly, the voting patterns of the Lok Sabha elections should not be used as benchmarks for assembly by-elections.

The by-elections in Uttar Pradesh are shaping up as a crucial test for both Yogi Adityanath’s leadership and Akhilesh Yadav’s evolving strategy. The results will provide insights into the political landscape leading up to future elections.