The Modi Wave Sweeps India

The BJP rides on the popularity of the ‘Modi Wave’, with the promise of ‘acche din’ challenging the stasis and corruption of the incumbent Congress.

The Bharatiya Janata Party pulled off a runaway victory marking a significant shift in Indian politics. A ‘Modi Wave’ capitalised on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and a Hindu nationalism agenda. “Prime Minister Modi’, ran a headline on The Hindu’s front-page on the day of the verdict.

The government introducedpolicies like the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation as solutions to the economic turbulence under the previous regime. ‘Digital India’ and ‘Swacch Bharat Abhiyan’ became symbols of social development.Mr. Modi’s government also came under scrutiny for its role in weakening human rights, civil liberties, free speech and democratic institutions.

The polls

Elections were conducted in nine phases from April 7 to May 12. Voter turnout increased by 8.25% and stood at 66.4% — the rise was the highest-ever between two successive parliamentary elections. Women’s turnout was higher than men’s in some States, including Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Manipur and Goa.

Electronic voting machines, for the first time, presented the ‘None of the Above’ (NOTA) option during voting; 1.08% votes were for NOTA, the highest came from the Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu.

The number of female candidates increased by 20.14%. The third highest 11.42% female candidates (62) were elected during this Lok Sabha, with the maximum candidates coming from Uttar Pradesh.

The Bharatiya Janata Party scripted history with 282 seats to its name – the first time since independence that a party, other than Congress, got a clear majority in the Lok Sabha. The incumbent Indian National Congress registered its worst performance with 37 seats, followed by the All India Anna Dravida MunnetraKazhagam (AIADMK) which won 37 seats in the House.

The house of the people

The BJP with its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi nearly doubled the number of votes it received in 2009 – the party bagged every third vote cast in the country. The party swept northern and western regions including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. In U.P., the BJP won 73 of the 80 seats it contested; the party had secured 10 seats five years ago. An analysis published in The Hindu found BJP and its allies accrued the benefits of the higher voter turnout in 2014.

“BJP’s stunning defeat was matched in its intensity and sweep only by the crushing defeat of the Congress,” The Hindu noted in its coverage. The Rahul Gandhi-led party won 44 seats, less than a third of its tally in 1977, when an anti-Congress wave swept in the aftermath of the Emergency. The party registered losses in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Delhi, Odisha, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu; the Nandurbar constituency in Maharashtra, held by Congress since 1962, fell to BJP. Mr. Gandhi contested and won from the family seat of Amethi by one lakh votes. Congress leader Kamal Nath won Chhindwara in Madhya Pradesh again.

Kerala was the only big state where the BJP did not have an MP. Some regional parties stood up against the BJP, with Trinamool Congress (West Bengal), Biju Janata Dal (Odisha), and AIADMK (Tamil Nadu)retaining a large chunk of the voter base. The Left fell to its lowest tally in history. The Bahujan Samaj Party won no seats despite coming third nationally with 4.1% of the vote.

BJP’s sensational sweep and NDA’s historic mandate was credited to Narendra Modi, BJP’s star campaigner, who was sworn in as Prime Minister. Mr. Modi’s nomination as PM came after days of “back-room maneuvering at the behest of the RSS,” B. Muralidhar Reddy reported in The Hindu. Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley supported the politician while BJP patriarch L.K. Advani and leader Sushma Swaraj wanted to wait. Others questioned Mr. Modi’s ability to “run a smooth, stable and effective government”, referencing his role in the administration during the Gujarat riots of 2002. The former Chief Minister has been an active RSS volunteer in the past.

There was no official Leader of the Opposition since no single opposition party met the 10% seat criterion. The House elected Sumitra Mahajan as the Speaker, among the longest-serving female MPs. Her tenure as Speaker was marked by her calm demeanor and efforts to ensure the smooth functioning of the House.This Lok Sabha had the highest number of first-time MPs in over 30 years, with AIADMK leading the pack, followed by Shiv Sena, BJD, BJP and Trinamool Congress. Most debutants had family connections.

With an overwhelming majority, India transitioned away from an elongated run of coalition governments at the centre, The Hindu’s analysis noted.

The politics

A desire for effective governance set the pitch for the 16th Lok Sabha. The Hindu credited Congress’s “ignominious defeat” to an “uninspiring campaign” by Rahul Gandhi which failed to inspire the young, impatient electorate. Moreover, the UPA’s policy paralysis, stalled economic growth, food inflation, high fiscal deficitand corruption scandals created a “hunger for change”.

Enter BJP, and its star campaigner Narendra Modi, who symbolised “fast economic growth unshackled from red tape and corruption”.

The promise of “Achhe Din” (Good Days) — clean governance and economic change — resonated with the electorate. Mr Modi was portrayed asbusiness-friendly and pro-industrialisation; he bought several automakers to put up factories in Sanand municipality of the Ahmedabad district — making it an important industrial hub. In an analysis, The Hindu noted two distinct voter bases: the youth and the OBC. From a 22% vote share in 2009, the BJP won 30% of the OBC and 43% of the EBC vote in the 2014 elections. “BJP positioned itself as the champion of [subcastes] located among the lower rungs of the OBC community, who were dissatisfied with the promises of the Mandal mobilisation,” wrote political analyst Milan Vaishnav in 2023.

The BJP also leveraged social media in the largely issue-based national election to extend the reach of their propaganda, bash rival candidates and promote leaders, The Hindu pointed out. Within a month of winning, Mr. Modi became the world’s second most popular head of state on Facebook.

The campaign in the Hindi-speaking States “drew heavily upon Hindu cultural nationalism”, The Hindu’s editorial noted, “not really imagery suitable to the public space in democratic India”. A “trust deficit” remained among the Muslim community.

The agenda

The Lower House met for 1,615 hours, 40% lower than all full-term Parliaments and had the second lowest hours of work done compared to full term Lok Sabhas. Analysis showed the House discussed more Bills for more times in comparison to previous term, but fewer Bills were scrutinised in Committees. The Lok Sabha passed key laws includingthe Triple Talaq Bill and the Citizenship Bill.

Legislations such as the Aadhaar Act were passed as a Money Bill, avoiding scrutiny of the Rajya Sabha. Finance Bills between 2015-17 included amendments to the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act and changes to 19 quasi-judicial bodies.The government introduced the electoral bond scheme in the 2017 Union Budget to “cleanse the system” of political funding. The Supreme Court in February 2024 declared the scheme unconstitutional. Mr. Modi’s government won a no-confidence motion in 2018, which was discussed in the House for 11 hours and 46 minutes.

Foreign policy during this term built around the ‘Act East’ and ‘Neighbourhood First’ policies, the latter being the anchor point of India’s foreign policy since Independence. Mr. Modia embarked on 49 overseas visits in his first term, costing the exchequer ₹1,484 crore. In contrast, Mr. Modi’s predecessor, Manmohan Singh, spent ₹642 crore during his nine years in power. The government has also acted on the “illegal immigration” issue from neighbouring Bangladesh and Myanmar.

The ruling government introduced economic reforms, social welfare policies, digital India initiatives and took a stance on national security. Women’s education, employment and safety emerged as electoral planks. India in 2018 ranked among the world’s most dangerous countries for women due to sexual violence.

India’s performance on humanitarianand democracy indices declined globally. Caste-based attacks and skewed judicial processes were flagged, with the Bhima Koregaon violence of 2018, when activists and lawyers were arrested on the charge of being part of a Maoist conspiracy. Dalit scholar Rohith Vemula’s death in 2016 drew attention to caste fault lines. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index found Mr.Modi and Hindu-nationalist BJP have “presided over increased intolerance and sectarianism towards Muslims and other religious minorities”. The ruling government has questioned the legitimacy of all such indices.

The Lok Sabha was dissolved on May 25, 2019.

References

1. Election Commission of India
2. Election Atlas of India: Parliamentary elections 1952 – 2014, edited by Dr. R. K. Thukral
3. Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2018
4. PRS Legislative Research
5. The video was taken from Bharatiya Janata Party’s YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQkwJgz_fKY
6. The Hindu Archives
7. Vaishnav, M. (2023, December 7). Decoding India’s 2024 Election Contest. Carnergie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/07/decoding-india-s-2024-election-contest-pub-91178